NASA image of Sandy as it hits the east coast on October 29, 2012.
The scope
of damage wrought last week by Hurricane Sandy along the northeastern seaboard (and
inland) is unprecedented. While the hit upon the most densely populated region
in the country is largely incalculable in human terms, the measurable costs
will be immense, likely in the many tens of billions of dollars.(1) These
costs include not only those associated with property destruction but also the
loss of business in Sandy's aftermath and economic productivity moving forward.
Innumerable
outlets have already chronicled Sandy
and its impacts so I’ll focus my comments upon its significance to architects
like me. How will Sandy
and its consequences adjust our world views? It’s my belief that Sandy’s occurrence will come to mark
the moment when a majority of American finally came to understand the severity of global warming and its consequences. It’s too difficult to escape the
conclusion that Sandy
is a precursor to a “new normal” wherein weather events of such violence
and scope are progressively more common around the globe.(2) Business as usual is not a
rational path forward.
Weather
trends point toward the increasing probability of superstorms. I blogged previously about why large-scale
climate change is taking place and the likelihood that we’ve already crossed a
critical threshold where exponential acceleration of rising temperatures and
coastlines is inevitable. The bottom line is that our lives will be impacted in
unimagined ways. We must envision a future world in which our existence is
dramatically and irrevocably transformed by the effects of global warming and
progressively more chaotic weather. Many will disagree with me, but I fear our
laudable efforts to promote sustainability in design may in some respects be
too little, too late.(3)
It is
reasonable to question whether we can afford to continue to put people and
assets into harm’s way. After Hurricane Katrina in 2005, levelheaded voices pointed out the
tragedy that befell New Orleans
was much more than a natural disaster; it was also a social, political, and
engineering catastrophe. Our natural response is to rebuild communities and
restore ways of life deeply rooted in tradition and rich with history. The
strength of New Orleans’
cultural and physical identity suppressed the question of whether rebuilding
made practical sense. Unfortunately, with sea levels forecast to rise by as
much as three feet before the end of this century, the odds “The Big Easy” will
confront another existential moment are exceedingly high.
The same is
likely true for all low-lying coastal communities around the world. If and when
another Sandy
comes around—and it will—the damage may be even more severe. Imagine if it was Bangladesh that suffered Sandy’s wrath. The suffering and loss of
human life would have been staggering. Disaster risk managers will be unable to
ignore the consequences of a failure to address the dangers. Insurance
companies will reassess their coastal underwriting strategies, dramatically
redesign their pricing, or suffer unsustainable losses. The risk to the bottom
line may drive many to act by reassessing their commitment to emotional and
financial investments in vulnerable locations.
Perhaps Sandy’s ferocity will
trigger development of practical climate change adaptation strategies for the
built environment. Indeed, dynamically adaptive design may become a fixture in
the curricula of schools for up-and-coming generations of architects. Buildings
will be designed to move, react, and adapt in real-time conditions to changes
in the environment around them. Out of necessity, human habitation within
at-risk areas may lose its permanence and become transitory. A century from
now, the United States
and some of its most iconic cities may hardly resemble what they do today.
Regarding
how design professionals can immediately help in the wake of Sandy’s devastation, AIA National president Jeff Potter, FAIA reported that AIA’s
Disaster Assistance Committee urges architects outside the areas affected to
not yet rush in to volunteer services. As the recovery moves ahead, the AIA
will share information about how members can assist following the immediate
emergency response. There’s no doubt that architects can and will play a role;
however, our greatest contribution will be helping to formulate long-term plans
to mitigate and adapt to the impact of future superstorms.
Lamentably,
Sandy draws only belated attention to the extent
to which climate change has been ignored during the 2012 U.S. presidential
campaign. What should have been a signature issue this election year instead has been
relegated to insignificance in the chase for electoral votes. We’ll see if with
Sandy came a
silver lining, one that has meaningfully altered our relationship to our
environment and our attitude towards it.
(1) According to Wikipedia, property damage alone for
Hurricane Katrina in 2005 exceeded $81 billion. Sandy may end up being more costly due to the
scope of its economic disruption.
(2) Regrettably, it will have taken Sandy’s impacts upon the nation's centers of media
control, political influence, and wealth to awaken leadership to the unavoidable realities of climate change.
(3) I’m not suggesting that designing with sustainability
in mind is futile; rather, I believe our predominantly narrow focus upon
individual building performance fails to adequately place sustainable design within the
overarching climate change context.
