Eugene and the Menace of the Black Swan

(Photo by Marvin Rozendal on Unsplash)

In his 2007 book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, author Nassim Nicholas Taleb  addresses society’s “blindness with respect to randomness, particularly large deviations” in the face of the “unknown, the abstract, and imprecise uncertain.” The Sunday Times described The Black Swan as one of the twelve most influential books since World War II. It focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—referred to as Black Swans—of which the current global pandemic is an example, at least for those of us who haven’t lived through such a crisis before and/or struggle to appreciate its implications. 

According to Taleb, a Black Swan possesses the following characteristics:

1. The event is a surprise (to the observer).
2. The event has a major effect.
3. After the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs. The same is true for the personal perception by individuals.

Realistically, no amount of local planning can fully prepare us for a Black Swan, in part because people tend to ignore growing threats or only recognize opportunities after it is too late. So while Taleb does not deem the advent of COVID-19 as truly a Black Swan event—because experts have known for years such a pandemic was not only possible but highly probable—the fact remains it’s human nature to flout ample evidence such rare birds exist. We have all been surprised, shocked and have had our conception of the world turned on its head by a tiny virus. 

So, what does all this presage for Eugene’s future beyond 2020? How will our community have survived its encounter with a menacing Black Swan? 

First and foremost, my hope is we all regard what is happening now as a wakeup call. We must muster the will and build robustness so we are better prepared to confront future upheavals and catastrophes. There will be other pandemics, perhaps several more within my remaining lifetime. And of course, the cascading impacts of climate change are coming home to roost. Ever higher temperatures, droughts, wildfires, sea level rise, thawing of the permafrost, extreme weather events, receding glaciers, ocean acidification, and species extinctions are accelerating. In turn, food security, access to fresh water, and supply chains are threatened. Mounting famine, civil unrest, political instability, and vulnerability to disease may lead to many millions of deaths worldwide. 

But if planning for future Black Swans will be inadequate because we are fundamentally ill-equipped to grasp the magnitude and severity of what we know to be inevitable, what confidence do we have for the future of our community? 

In Eugene’s case, there is some hope. Like other cities of similar size and providence, Eugene (and by extension the entire Eugene-Springfield metro area) may be better positioned to navigate turbulent future seas than larger urban centers: 

• Mid-sized cities typically feature a (relatively) lower cost of living, easier commutes, and closer connections with family, but also a more approachable, neighborhood-oriented version of the metropolitan lifestyle. It is easier to feel a sense of a larger community in a smaller city. 
• Smaller, more agile companies will be the ones that will flourish during the era of the “new normal.” Eugene may not be home to a Fortune 500 company, but it has proven to be fertile ground for disruptive, nimble innovators. Think of Arcimoto, R2B Microgrid Solutions, and Local Food Marketplace, three Eugene-based businesses on the cutting edge of industries poised for massive paradigm-shifts. Working remotely—as has occurred by necessity for many during the current emergency—allows the next generation of tech companies to be more geographically diverse. These companies no longer favor the traditional, larger cities. 
• Eugene has an educated workforce and is home to the University of Oregon, a major research university. 
• Eugene’s infrastructure is poised for growth, with an airport that offers connections to anywhere you need to go (though there are fears smaller airports served by regional carriers may fall victim to the current contraction in air travel, particularly if the volume of passengers never fully rebounds), convenient access to the I-5 transportation corridor, a comprehensive public transit system (which may also suffer if patronage fails to return to pre-pandemic levels), good schools and healthcare, cultural offerings rivaling those of larger cities, and opportunities for a wide range of outdoor recreation activities. 
• Importantly, our city has a developed “sense of place,” an identity and character that we Eugeneans and many visitors feel. This is imparted by various natural, manmade, and cultural factors. Together, they comprise Eugene’s genius loci, the spirit of the place, that which is unique, distinctive, and cherished about our city.

Jane Jacobs postulated in her book Cities and the Wealth of Nations that cities—not nations—are the drivers of wealth. Jacobs believed healthy cities are the ones able to constantly evolve, able to replace imported goods with locally produced alternatives, and thus capable of sustaining cycles of vibrant economic growth. Mid-sized, second-tier cities like Eugene may be able to adapt and evolve more quickly in response to a rapidly changing reality than a larger urban system; think of the timeworn changing-course-while-piloting-a-small-boat-versus-a-supertanker metaphor. 

It helps if cities are proximate to resources and productive agricultural land, which Eugene is. This favors localization of economic activity and diminished reliance upon imported goods. The vulnerabilities of the global trade ecosystem exposed by the novel coronavirus will likely spur hyper-localization in the years to come. Eugene stands to benefit from this trend, becoming more self-sufficient and resilient in the process. 

As I said earlier, no amount of preparation will ensure Eugene is entirely ready for the next Black Swan. That said, what are the urban planning and design implications wrought by the coronavirus outbreak? What will Eugene’s new normal look like in the aftermath of the pandemic? The following is sheer guesswork on my part, and the order of the predictions does not indicate my ranking of their odds for becoming reality: 

• The productivity of remote working will lead some companies to realize paying for unnecessary office space may not be the best use of their resources. Distributed workforces are likely to be much more common after this pandemic than before. The net result will be lessened demand for new office space and cancellation of some projects currently in the pipeline. Worse yet, a shift toward permanent remote working arrangements will lead to excess vacancies and shuttering of existing office buildings. Coupled with retail, restaurant, and entertainment sector casualties, this means hopes for the continued resurgence of downtown Eugene may be in jeopardy. 
• Brick and mortar Eugene retailers, like their counterparts across the country, will increasingly struggle. More and more people are accustomed to purchasing things they need online. It may take a while, but the survivors who retain storefront presences will be those businesses whose value proposition is rooted in its hyper-localism. The survivors here in Eugene will be those who can adequately differentiate themselves and their products from their online competition. Coupled with the decline of national store brands, this trend will abet a renaissance in boutique retail. 
• Within the next decade, both the Valley River Center and the Gateway Mall will fail, a consequence of our changing shopping habits and the aforementioned waning of high-volume retail chains. Stepping in to fill the vacuum will be neighborhood mixed-use centers featuring eclectic assortments of small stores, restaurants, food carts, grocery markets, live-work spaces, and houses over the shops. These centers will tend to evolve organically, with multiple local owners developing them incrementally, as opposed to large blockbuster projects by out-of-town investment interests. VRC and Gateway may ultimately become fertile ground for two future neighborhood centers. 
• Hyper-localism will also emphasize the value of differentiated neighborhood centers. Our neighborhoods may assume a degree of preeminence over Eugene’s greater identity. People may come to regard Eugene primarily as a constellation of neighborhoods, each with its own unique character and attractions. 
• How we gather will change. The need for greater resilience—including a continued limiting of especially large public events—suggests smaller venues will be favored. What does this mean for my beloved Oregon Ducks athletics teams? This question is being asked by fans across the country, and by professional sports organizations like the NBA, major league baseball, the NFL, NHL, and more. The implications for the multi-billion-dollar sports industry are huge. Eugene will be impacted as much or more by the fallout as any other city. Ultimately, our well-being is dependent upon fundamental social connections, so we will gather and interact as humans must do. We will just do so differently. 
• The extent to which the University of Oregon confronts the new reality will have a ripple effect through the community. Out-of-state enrollment will surely drop, and demand for remote learning will persist, post-pandemic. The university will face a severe funding crisis, forcing it to rethink its mission. 
• I don’t think our K-12 schools can practically change too much without stressing the system to its breaking point. Students, teachers, and parents will adapt their behaviors to minimize the prospect of schools becoming primary vectors for COVID-19 and future pathogens, but the rituals of attending school and the schools themselves will mostly remain the same as they were pre-lockdown. 
• Some people cite population density as a contributing factor to the ease with which the coronavirus spread. As the epicenter of the pandemic in this country, they point to New York City as a case-in-point. But this claim is belied by the fact that cities of comparable or greater density, such as Seoul, Taipei, and Singapore, have not experienced anywhere near a similar rate of infection. So, there should not be calls to relax Eugene’s urban growth boundary to allow for expansion. Averting density will not be necessary; if anything, people should regard continuing to restrain sprawl as the more urgent health imperative. 
• People will value Eugene’s parks and open spaces more than ever. Future improvements to our public spaces may include more hiking paths, widened sidewalks and the closure of select streets to vehicular traffic. 
• What about Eugene’s architecture? To the degree the demand for new construction remains strong—and that will very much be in question—I don’t believe there will be a specific change in how we design our buildings. Instead, it’s how we live our lives that has changed and will continue to change. In time, these changes may influence our architecture, but it’s too soon to predict in what ways exactly. 

It is clear much of our future is uncertain and worrisome. The world has been forever altered and with it, Eugene has been as well. We should have been prepared for this pandemic, but we were not. If history is a guide, humans aren’t particularly good at learning from painful experience. We quickly forget and resume our “normal” lives. We also tend to underestimate the frequency of Black Swans and their effects upon our best laid plans. The difference—viewed from our current perspective—is we cannot afford to repeat this behavior. The next Black Swan may be the one that kills us all.