Architecture is Awesome #20: Future Thinking

Future thinking in process.

This is another in my series of posts inspired by 1000 Awesome Things, the Webby Award winning blog written by Neil Pasricha. The series is my meditation on the awesome reasons why I was and continue to be attracted to the art of architecture. 

Architects plan or design places and buildings. They imagine attractive and functional solutions for each design problem. Architects coordinate multidisciplinary teams of design, engineering, and construction professionals. They sort through a maze of building codes and zoning requirements. They add value by monitoring the budget, by ensuring the proposed design minimizes energy and maintenance costs, by exploring new thinking on critical issues, and more. This leads to better outcomes and the best realization of their clients’ visions. They do all this by applying their knowledge and skills to conceive what is possible for buildings that may stand for many, many years. In short, architects are visionaries—they are future-thinkers. 

Being a future-thinker means having a mindset geared to examining and testing potential outcomes. Professional futurists chiefly focus on probabilities rather than predictions. They model scenarios, mapping current trends into a set of the likeliest effects. Architects similarly explore ideas and opportunities for a given project through an iterative process, mapping possibilities, and modeling and testing a building’s design before it becomes a concrete reality. 

Being a future-thinker also means being creative, inventive, and far-sighted. Architects worth their salt are always thinking about how their work will contribute to a better future for the communities they work in. In a sense, architects are nothing if not time travelers during the design process. 

Expo ’67, Montreal (photo by Laurent Bélanger - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=30298079)

The architectural profession has a storied history replete with futuristic and provocative proposals intended as advanced harbingers of tomorrow’s world. Equal parts the products of hubris, optimism, and naivete, these concepts captured the public’s fancy. Many were impossibly ambitious. Others were meant to presage the widespread use of revolutionary technologies. The majority never progressed beyond visions on paper, but some did get built. Periodic world expositions since the 1800s have served as testing grounds for numerous ideas thought to be ahead of their time. Think of such iconic and innovative structures as the Crystal Palace in London (1851), the Eiffel Tower (1889), the Barcelona Pavilion (1929), the Space Needle in Seattle (1962), and Buckminster Fuller’s geodesic dome in Montreal (1967). Many regarded these examples as expressive symbols of a bold and utopian future. 

King’s Dream of New York (1908)

The reality usually proves different. Many past attempts to earnestly envision an architecture of the future appear silly or quaint once that future date arrives (think of early 20^th century visions of 21^st century cities populated by dirigibles and flying cars). Futurists and architects do their best to imagine what the future might be like, but they also know they’re not clairvoyant. Accurately predicting the future is an inexact science at best. Disruptive developments can occur at any time, perturbing our illusions of balance, order, certainty, and predictability. 

For everyday architects, future thinking is grounded in the very ordinary and matter-of-fact challenges posed by real-world design problems. Architects traditionally approach design as an exercise in the development of positive, linear scenarios even as the world is made up of complex systems, interacting in innumerably non-linear ways. At best, they can visualize each of their projects as part of one possible version of the future, managing a vast field of future probability by viewing it through a lens resolutely set in the present moment. That said, future-minded designers work outside many different, complexly interacting boxes at once. They analyze and understand as much as they can about the design problem but also recognize where the gaps in their ability to predict the future exist. Accordingly, they seek to produce buildings that possess the flexibility to be adaptable over time, embrace contingency, and are resilient in the face of constant and sometimes chaotic change. 

Future thinking comes naturally to architects. Architects have the AWESOME responsibility of designing buildings and places that give shape to our future.

Next Architecture is Awesome:  #21 Symmetry  

Hope and Confidence

I wish I could turn my attention to other matters and write as if nothing out of the ordinary is happening out there in the world. Unfortunately, the current moment is anything but ordinary. The COVID-19 virus and society’s necessary response to it have entirely upended business as usual and the normalcy of our lives.

Thankfully, people increasingly understand how serious a threat the disease is and are doing their part to minimize its transmission. Efforts to stem the rapid spread of the coronavirus are ramping up dramatically. Physical distancing and sheltering in place are absolutely necessary to “flatten the curve” of exponential growth in the number of cases. Slowing that growth will ease the burden upon heroic healthcare providers battling courageously to save lives and protect others.

Moving forward—at least for the short term—I’ll do my best not to obsess over the impacts of the pandemic, regardless of their seriousness. My office is doing fine for now. To the best of our knowledge, none of our staff nor their immediate family members have contracted the virus. As I mentioned in last week’s post, working remotely is proving effective. Had this crisis occurred even just a few short years ago, we might not have been able to carry on.

I will return with my next post to blogging about architectural design, professional practice, and urban design-related topics of interest to me. Distractions during this concerning time are healthy; writing for my blog is an example of such a distraction.

Another distraction I’m looking forward to is connecting with my fellow Eugene Taiko members. We’re planning the first of what may be an ongoing series of virtual group meetings via Zoom web conferencing. We’re so used to meeting regularly for practices and performances that we’re experiencing withdrawal symptoms as a consequence of the enforced social distancing. While we won’t be able to drum together, we will be able to connect as a group, share stories about how we’re coping, and maintain our kinship.

Looking past the immediate horizon, everyone should expect to sustain the efforts to slow the virus’ spread for many weeks, if not months. The fallout is and will continue to be a reeling economy, with no prospect in sight for a speedy recovery. Many face hardships as jobs are lost and opportunities for social connection and support are drastically curtailed. Community support systems are being stretched to the limit.

Finding creative and socially responsible ways to connect and help others during this difficult time will greatly help. Call or text your neighbors (particularly the elderly) to make sure they’re doing okay. Explore ways to connect and volunteer virtually. Buy vouchers from struggling local businesses. Support a food bank, or help others grow their own food. Google “how to help others during the coronavirus outbreak” for lists of other suggestions for how you can stay connected in your community and in the process help yourself.

The coronavirus reports from Italy in particular have been absolutely horrific. The pandemic has ravaged the country. The volume of new cases each day now numbers in the thousands, and the number of deaths many hundreds. And yet, under total lockdown the Italians have displayed an indomitable spirit. Engaging in “flash mob sonora,” people sing and play instruments (some makeshift) from their balconies and windows. Doing so, they maintain precious bonds and display solidarity with their neighbors through a mutual love of music and life. Suffering the worst imaginable effects of the pandemic, the Italians are enduring with fortitude and heart. Seeing this collective joy in the face of tragedy and travails gives me hope and confidence we can all persevere.   

An Unprecedented & Rapidly Evolving Situation

Photo Credit:Content Providers(s): CDC/Dr. Fred Murphy / Public domain

What scientists say about the risks to society posed by the coronavirus (COVID-19) is sobering to say the least. If the worst fears are realized, it may infect a large percentage of the population, with many deaths caused. Early evidence suggests COVID-19 is much more contagious than the seasonal flu. Because it is novel (meaning it hasn’t previously been seen before in humans), we lack a developed immunity to it and researchers have yet to devise a vaccine. So, while most people may only develop mild symptoms, the disease may be deadly to many others, especially the elderly and those with compromised immune systems. 

I’m now considered part of the population at greater risk: I’m over 60, so as someone “older,” I have a higher probability of developing severe symptoms if I contract the COVID-19 virus. Additionally, I suffered a bout with pneumonia a few years back, which did some damage to my lungs. Another acute respiratory illness would be worrying, to say the least. Consequently, I’m taking heed of all recommended precautions, including frequent handwashing, social distancing, and doing my best to avoid touching my eyes, nose, and mouth (which is really hard to do). 

What about work? My office—Robertson/Sherwood/Architects—put a set of protocols in place last week to help us manage this unprecedented and rapidly evolving situation. These protocols include practicing rigorous sanitation, eliminating meetings in-person as much as is practical, and working remotely (via VPN access). If anyone feels symptoms of any illness—even a mild and seemingly innocuous cold—we will insist they stay home. We don’t want to let any bug run through the office for fear of wearing down each other’s immune systems. 

Fortunately, our clients are also doing their part to minimize the potential for spreading the contagion. Most of the larger meetings, such as a series of public presentations for the Lane County Justice Center project I had on my schedule, are cancelled or on hold. We’re rethinking the necessity of smaller meetings. We’ll opt for online conferencing whenever possible. 

On other fronts, the American Institute of Architects has postponed its annual Conference on Architecture, which was slated to take place in Los Angeles this May, and the CSI Willamette Valley Chapter has likewise rescheduled the 2020 Northwest + West Bi-Region Conference from next month until this October. 

The bottom line is my office won’t stop working. We believe it’s our duty to provide our services to the community, and by extension our patronage. Our commitment to our consultants, clients, and projects will not falter. We’re not going to throw our hands up and abandon things thinking it’s all too difficult—that’s not who we are. We know we can work through this. We will adjust our schedules and procedures as required to best work around the challenges posed by the COVID-19 virus. 

The pandemic scares everyone. People are panic buying, searching vainly for hand sanitizers, food staples, and toilet paper. News outlets breathlessly report draconian lockdowns, travel bans, shortages of medical supplies, and the exponential growth in numbers of those infected by the virus. A sense of existential dread is palpable. And yet this startling and sudden upheaval of our lives—this disruption of normalcy—will pass, perhaps soon. When it does, there may be a silver lining: a shared appreciation for the frailty of humans, and with it an enhanced awareness of the immeasurable complexity and interconnectedness of all life.

Lane County Justice Center Information & Input Session

UPDATE: The Open House has been cancelled due to concerns about the COVID-19 virus and recommendations about social distancing and avoidance of large groups. The event will likely be rescheduled to a future date to be determined. Stay tuned.

The 61-year old Lane County Courthouse is beset by numerous shortcomings. Many of these, such as the building’s limited size and infrastructural weaknesses, are largely insurmountable. The current courthouse is now serving twice the population it was originally designed for back in the 1950s. Space limitations cause inefficiencies that lead to late start times, delays in the courtroom, and juggling of locations. There is no space to add programs that could speed resolutions. The building puts courthouse users, victims, and defendants close to each other, posing obvious risks. Equitable access is severely lacking in many instances, including within the courtrooms, restrooms, and the Grand Jury room.

Lane County retained Robertson/Sherwood/Architects (my firm) in 2018 to assist with identifying a prudent project scope for a new replacement. Working with national judicial facility experts DLR Group, we analyzed the 2016 Court Facility Needs Assessment prepared by the National Center for State Courts and tested the appropriateness of the former Eugene City Hall block as a site for a new courthouse. We worked closely with staff representing the Lane County Circuit Court, Lane County District Attorney, and the Lane County Sheriff’s Office in this effort, ultimately developing a proposal with an associated budget for presentation to the county electorate in May of 2019.

The results of that election were clear as a broad majority failed to support the proposed bond issue. Unfortunately, the need for a new courthouse hasn’t gone away, and the current facility’s challenges will only become more acute with each passing year if nothing is done.

Since last May’s vote, the County has worked to identify the best path forward. This effort has included meeting with and polling community members to determine the reasons for their rejection of that ballot measure. Many voters believed there were too many outstanding questions about the project, so the project team is working to address those questions and ask the community for feedback. This effort includes an electronic survey (conducted between October 2019 and January of this year), community events, and conversations around the county to give community members a chance to learn more and to respond with their thoughts.

Clearly, there was a significant level of misunderstanding among voters about what the proposed project entailed. Many people unfamiliar with the current courthouse and its functions questioned the need for a new facility, some confusing it with the nearby and relatively new federal courthouse. Others conflated the controversies associated with the Eugene City Hall project with the County’s purchase of the former City Hall site and the ask for a new building. A significant number of voters were not aware of the full variety of services provided in the current courthouse (this has prompted the County’s switch from using the term “courthouse” to “justice center”).

At a high level, citizens emphasized concerns about the cost of the project. Admittedly, a new courthouse/justice center will not be inexpensive. That said, the County heard the message loud and clear, so our team has thoroughly examined trade-offs and opportunities to decrease costs.

Notably, if local voters support a bond issue for a new Lane County Justice Center, the State of Oregon would provide a 50% funding match for the portion of the project associated with the courts portion of the program. This match is available thanks to legislation intended to address a “serious, statewide infrastructure problem;” however, Lane County will not receive any State funding if it cannot secure its citizens’ approval.

The County is hosting a public Open House in the existing courthouse, which presents a unique opportunity for everyone to tour the facility and see the building’s shortcomings firsthand. I encourage my readers to attend and learn more about the project status and add your perspectives and insights. Here are the details:

What:              Lane County Justice Center: Community Information & Input Session

When:             Thursday, March 12; 5:30 – 7:00 PM

Where:            Lane County Courthouse lobby, 125 E. 8^th Avenue, Eugene

Cost:                Free. Refreshments provided

RSVP:              No registration or RSVP required

The project team (which also includes the public engagement consulting firm Cogito) has already met with various interest groups (including the legal community, accessibility advocates, social services providers, and business leaders) and conducted outreach in general at numerous public outlets. We’ve harvested important and encouraging feedback, which we hope to build upon at this week’s event.

Me "holding court" with one of the Justice Center's design input groups (photo by Christopher Trotchie)

Ultimately, we’ll use the information we gather to help the Board of County Commissioners decide whether to again refer the question of a new building to Lane County voters.  

If you can’t make it to Thursday’s community Open House, be sure to check out the project’s website, which is chock-full of helpful information. If your time is short, at least take a moment to watch the video on the home page. In less than three brief minutes, the eye-opening piece highlights the existing courthouse’s myriad deficiencies.