Sunday, August 16, 2026
The Butsudan
Sunday, August 9, 2026
Stuff I Stumbled Upon
My interests have always been catholic, and I tend to be ADD to boot. This explains the wide-ranging links below; on any given day, I will flit between seemingly random subjects. All that connects these is my wandering curiosity. I’ve hyperlinked the headings, which will open the corresponding website in a separate tab:
If you’ve been a reader of my blog, you probably know I’m fascinated by the implications of artificial intelligence for the architectural profession. I came across this video on the Design Intent YouTube channel, produced by Ryan, an architect who works primarily in the commercial project sector. Like me, he’s inquisitive about AI. Among other things, his channel documents his creative experimentation with 3D modeling and visualizations; in this instance, he lets an AI LLM (Google Gemini) take control over the design of his next house. What he got wasn’t anything he expected.
I must also give credit to Mrs. Random for turning me on to Anthropeum, an online daily geography‑and‑chronology guessing game built around artifacts from The Metropolitan Museum of Art’s open‑access collection. The way Anthropeum works is that it shows you several pieces of art from the Met, and you must guess approximately where in the world and when it was created. It’s addicting, and my wife and I are now hooked. That doesn’t mean we’re good at it; it’s humbling to encounter the limits of our knowledge every day. Give it a try yourself.
I’m trying to focus more on my health to help forestall age-related ailments. Unfortunately, my latest lipid panel blood tests show my cholesterol and triglyceride numbers are heading in the wrong direction. Consequently, I’ve become more attentive than ever to the latest developments associated with screening and risk assessment for cardiovascular disease. The web page linked in the header above reports on the latest update to the cholesterol‑management guidelines from the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association. The updates emphasize earlier screening and more personalized risk assessment for cardiovascular disease (using the PREVENT risk calculator for 10‑ and 30‑year outcomes). They also recommend childhood screening for familial hypercholesterolemia and one‑time Lp(a) testing. The updates outline new LDL‑C targets and treatment options, including statins and newer lipid‑lowering therapies.
I have a limited understanding of Georgism, the economic ideology formed by 19th-century economist Henry George. For those, like me, who are not wholly familiar with its principles, the YouTube video linked in the header provides a six-minute-long primer. I wanted to learn more about Georgism because some suggest that it can help address housing affordability, primarily through land value taxes. Apparently, such a tax reduces the incentive to sit on unused parcels, makes speculation less profitable, and supports denser, more walkable urban forms. Georgism doesn’t solve zoning, permitting delays, construction costs, or NIMBY politics, but it does attack the speculative layer that inflates land prices. Here in Eugene, a land value tax would likely push more land into productive use and reduce the “empty lot premium” that has driven prices upward. Many people mislabel Georgism as a form of socialism, but it is fundamentally market-oriented and compatible with capitalism. The accusation persists because of sloppy political rhetoric, not because the theory resembles socialism in any meaningful way.
Sunday, August 2, 2026
The Arithmetic of Downtown Housing
When the City and its partners outlined the project
in 2021, they estimated a total cost of about $30 million. The expectation then
was that the city's contribution (primarily urban renewal funding) would total
about $1.1 million, roughly four percent of the cost.
Fast forward to this year: the budgeted project cost
is now $38.7 million, and the required public contribution increased to $10.5
million, more than 27 percent of the total. The design's scope barely changed; what changed was the math. Construction cost inflation, higher interest rates,
financing risk, and prevailing wage requirements all contributed to the shift.
None of these factors is unique to Eugene. What is distinctive is the local
market in which they operate. New housing can command only the rents and sale
prices local households can afford. When the costs of development rise faster than the
value the completed project can generate, the gap between investment and return steadily
widens.
Public debate has focused largely on the City's Multi-Unit Property Tax Exemption (MUPTE). It is important to understand what the
program does. MUPTE does not eliminate property taxes; instead, it
exempts for up to ten years only the taxes on new residential construction, while the underlying
land remains taxable. Rather than surrendering existing tax revenue, the
program temporarily exempts value that would not exist unless the building were
constructed. Nor is the exemption automatic. Projects must satisfy the city's
Public Benefit Criteria, which include above-code energy performance,
moderate-income housing contributions, compatible urban design, and a local
economic impact plan. City staff reviews every application, as does an
independent panel with neighborhood representatives, developers, and design
professionals. The program exchanges a temporary tax benefit for measurable
public benefits.
Even with MUPTE, the 1055 Willamette project still
needed a one-dollar land sale, millions in urban renewal funding, multiple
rounds of financial restructuring, a City Council extension of deadlines while
the developers assembled additional financing, and, ultimately, a return trip
for further assistance before the remaining gap could be closed—a sequence
that, on its own, might read as a story about one stubborn incentive program
rather than about the market underneath it. The Lookout Eugene-Springfield
editorial board recently asked a more pointed question: if one
133-unit building required nearly $9 million more public assistance than
anticipated, what does that imply for the rest of the downtown housing
pipeline? The Downtown Riverfront affordable housing project, a planned 75-unit
community by Atkins Dame and Homes for Good, ran into the same wall earlier this
year, requiring additional urban renewal funding after rising costs reopened
its financing gap. Projects that once appeared feasible are no longer penciling
out without additional assistance.
Today's discussions differ from those contested over
Capstone Communities, the out-of-state developer that proposed 1,234 student beds downtown in 2012. That dispute was mostly about scale rather than subsidy, and about whether one project should reshape so much of downtown at once, not to mention unease that most of the profit would flow to a Birmingham, Alabama, company. Some
version of that unease persists. It's easy to read the widening subsidy figures
for 1055 Willamette the same way, as evidence that developers are extracting
value from a weak market.
I don't think the numbers support that reading. A developer angling for a subsidy does not spend years assembling financing, absorb round after round of cost escalation, and return twice for more assistance before breaking ground. Nor does one sit on a fully entitled, fully incentivized project for the better part of a year, as appears to be happening at The Station House, if incentives alone were the point. MUPTE's public benefit requirements cut against the extraction story too. A developer either meets them or gets nothing. Whatever any developer's motives, the risk runs in both directions, and lately the private side hasn't been walking away with an easy win.
The pressing question is whether existing incentive
programs can bridge a financing gap now substantially larger than they were
designed to address. My impression is that the City instituted MUPTE to close
modest gaps between development costs and market feasibility, like the four
percent delta 1055 Willamette originally faced. It wasn't intended to
compensate for a market in which production costs have pulled far ahead of the
value finished housing can support. As that disparity grows, incentives become
less capable of closing the gap. As a result, projects are requiring direct public
investment just to reach the starting line.
Abandoning incentives is not the answer. There's no
evidence suggesting downtown housing will appear on its own once assistance
disappears. The more likely outcome is that vacant buildings remain vacant
while everyone waits for conditions to improve. And I don't think MUPTE is the
central issue. The program has become the focus largely because "tax exemption" sounds like a giveaway.
The structural mismatch behind it is less visible, but far more consequential.
If development costs continue to rise faster than Eugene's market can support,
every downtown housing project will face essentially the same problem, and
most won't clear it without help. No incentive program, by itself,
can erase that reality.
None of this settles what, if anything, the city can
do about the underlying arithmetic itself—whether through system development
charges, permitting timelines, zoning capacity, or something else entirely.
That's a harder question than whether any single incentive is fair, and it
deserves its own accounting.
For now, I'm happy to hear that 1055 Willamette is
moving forward. After standing empty for more than a decade, the old LCC
Downtown Center is finally about to become something else. I hope the projects
that follow will do the same. Whether they can will depend less on any single
incentive than on whether that gap begins to narrow.



